Question

Topic: Strategy

Scenario Planning

Posted by ReadCopy on 10/30/2006 at 9:20 AM ET 250 Points
I am looking for ideas to build into some scenario planning that I am attempting to do for a client, and wondered if anyone out there has done any and/or anyone can think of scenarios that I should plan for.

Thanks
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RESPONSES

  • Posted by wnelson on 10/30/2006 at 2:35 PM Accepted
    Andrew,

    What Randall said. Scenario planning depends on the industry. SWOT analysis helps with some of this as well.

    Some common scenarios: Economic downturns; new competitors, market consolidation - suppliers, competitors, and customers; new technologies replacing your product/service; Loss of key personnel; etc.

    I hope this helps.

    Wayde
  • Posted on 10/31/2006 at 9:08 AM Member
    My attempt here would be to provide the basics of scenario planning so that you could use it for your specific work.
    Scenario planning as a tool for planning was first put to use by Shell, when it was planning for its future oil business. It basically offers us a framework for developing policies in which the past is not a representative of future and when faced with an uncontrollable and uncertain future. The aim is of the exercise is to come up with a possible future scenario and the decisions thereof. The exercise comes up with a few contrasting scenarios to explain the impact of a decision taken in future. And it is important that one is able to attract a diverse group of people in the organization to participate in the exercise, so that more diverse views are generated and discussed.
  • Posted by Frank Hurtte on 10/31/2006 at 1:13 PM Accepted
    I agree we could provide more help with a detailed picture of your client, but sometimes that is not easy to do in a public forum (like Marketingprofs).
    To get you started here is a list::
    1) what happens if the owner dies
    2) what happens if a key staff member dies
    3) what happens if a natural disaster wipes out the facilities, equipment, office, inventory, etc
    4) what happens if a major customer closes
    5) what happens if a key staff member starts his/her own business
    6) what happens if hit with a major legal settlement
    7) what happens if a major opportunity for expansion happens?

    Hopefully this will get your own juices flowing. If you are dealing with a distributor or wholesale business, call get hold of me via my profile, I can offer other ideas.
  • Posted by ReadCopy on 11/1/2006 at 2:34 PM Author
    Thanks for your input, I appreciate it :-)
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